In this international break bulletin, we selected four matches from the UEFA Nations League that caught our attention, and shared our predictions along with detailed analysis.
Italy vs Belgium
Match Analysis
After disappointing their supporters by failing to qualify for three consecutive World Cups, Italy parted ways with Gennaro Gattuso and appointed Roberto Mancini as his replacement. Returning to the national team after three years, Mancini has already begun a major rebuilding process.
A group of nine players, Massimo Pessina, Daniele Ghilardi, Michael Kayode, Eddy Kouadio, Alessandro Romano, Issa Doumbia, Sebastiano Esposito, Antonio Vergara, and Mohamed Alì Zoma, have received their first senior national team call-ups. Italy are looking to transition toward a new generation by retaining an established core featuring Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alessandro Bastoni, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Nicolò Barella, Sandro Tonali, Riccardo Calafiori, and Gianluca Scamacca while surrounding them with a large number of new players. Donnarumma also highlighted this transition during the pre-match press conference, saying, “A new cycle is beginning.”
Italy’s options at center forward, a position where they have struggled in recent years, have expanded considerably. They now have a versatile group of eight forwards consisting of Pio Esposito, Moise Kean, Gianluca Scamacca, Giacomo Raspadori, Nicolò Zaniolo, Sebastiano Esposito, Samuele Inácio, and Mohamed Alì Zoma. The transition in defense is also continuing, with Italy gradually moving away from their traditional structure built around established defenders over the age of 30 toward a younger and more athletic defensive pool.
Failing to qualify for three consecutive World Cups was an extremely serious failure. Missing the most recent tournament in particular almost completely broke the connection between the national team and Italian football supporters. The disappointment was enormous. And that is without even mentioning the fact that Italy became one of the main subjects of football meme pages for weeks. In that context, the comprehensive rebuilding process that followed is extremely important.
Italy see this match as an opportunity to reconnect with their supporters and mark the beginning of a new era. It will also be the 900th match in the history of the Italian national team. The fact that it will be played at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome adds further symbolic importance. Mancini’s EURO 2020 journey during his first spell in charge also began in Rome.
Belgium are also going through a rebuilding process after deciding not to renew Rudi Garcia’s contract despite a successful World Cup campaign in which they reached the quarter-finals, appointing Mark van Bommel as his replacement. The changes are not as extensive as Italy’s, but we can describe it as a controlled transition toward the post-Golden Generation era.
Axel Witsel and Matz Sels have retired from international football, while Thomas Meunier and Alexis Saelemaekers were not called up. The most notable development, however, is Thibaut Courtois’ temporary break from international duty. Courtois wanted to skip the Nations League because of the demanding match schedule, and Mark van Bommel accepted his request.
With Matz Sels having retired from international football and Courtois unavailable, Senne Lammens is expected to start in goal. Lammens has conceded eight goals in five Premier League appearances for Manchester United, making his performance against Italy an interesting point to watch.
Jérémy Doku, Amadou Onana, and Leandro Trossard are all injured. All three were among Belgium’s most important players at the World Cup, and their absence will certainly be felt. As if those crucial injuries were not enough, the lack of productivity from Belgium’s center forwards is another concerning issue.
Loïs Openda has recorded only one goal and one assist in four appearances for Olympique Lyon, while Matias Fernandez-Pardo and Romelu Lukaku have yet to make a direct goal contribution for their clubs this season.
Mark van Bommel has stated that his aim is to bring Belgium back to a level where they can compete with the best teams in the world, but he has very little experience in international management. In fact, Belgium are the first national team he has ever coached. The injuries to key players such as Doku, Onana, and Trossard, combined with Courtois’ temporary absence from international duty, make his first test particularly difficult against Italy away from home.
Mancini stated in his press conference that Italy’s objective is to reach the Nations League Final Four. His new-look Italy should avoid defeat against Mark van Bommel’s new Belgium side, who will be missing several important players in key positions.
Prediction
Double Chance: 1X
Türkiye vs France
Match Analysis
Türkiye returned to the World Cup after a 24-year absence but were eliminated early without living up to expectations. Now, in their first match following that disappointment, they face the unfortunate task of coming up against an extremely strong France side.
With high-quality players such as Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Arda Güler, Can Uzun, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, and Kenan Yıldız, the Red and Whites were widely expected to progress from their World Cup group. Instead, they were eliminated early because of several well-known chronic problems that many people had overlooked.
Their center-back line consists of physically heavy defenders such as Merih Demiral and Abdülkerim Bardakçı. This defense can struggle badly against quick players and always carries the risk of conceding against almost any opponent. The goals they conceded against Australia at the World Cup were almost a perfect demonstration of this problem on the pitch.
They also lack a high-quality center forward. Although Türkiye have important players in midfield, they do not have a striker with the finishing ability and physical presence to make the most of the service those players can provide. Kerem Aktürkoğlu, a winger who has frequently been used as a center forward, is very limited both physically and in terms of finishing. Deniz Gül is currently the only natural center forward in the squad, and after his transfer from FC Porto to Galatasaray, he still does not appear fully ready for the season.
They are also an extremely emotional team. Yes, this is probably one of the best-known characteristics of Turkish players. While that emotional intensity helped carry them to the EURO 2008 semi-finals in the past, it is more often a disadvantage. Part of the problem comes from the enormous pressure created by Turkish supporters, who can sometimes forget that football is ultimately a game of entertainment. At the World Cup, there were moments when even Türkiye’s most important players looked almost paralyzed by that pressure, moving timidly around the pitch rather than playing with freedom.
As if the problems of a slow defense, a center-forward line lacking finishing quality and physical strength, and the emotional nature of the players were not enough, Türkiye will also be without star players Kenan Yıldız and Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Despite all of this, Arda Güler will be their key player in this match. After producing incredible performances for Real Madrid this season, it will be interesting to see whether he can pull a rabbit out of the hat and change the course of the game.
France, meanwhile, have entered a new era under Zinédine Zidane following Didier Deschamps’ 14-year tenure, and there is a very positive atmosphere around the team. While keeping the core of the squad intact, Zidane has signaled that he intends to expand the player pool by handing several players their first call-ups. Guillaume Restes, Andy Diouf, Jérémy Jacquet, Lucas Da Cunha, and Estéban Lepaul were initially called up to the senior national team for the first time. Following several injuries during the camp, Leny Yoro and Jean Butez were also called up, taking the number of first-time selections to seven.
There is no controversy surrounding the captaincy in this new era either. Kylian Mbappé remains captain, with Ousmane Dembélé, Adrien Rabiot, and Jules Koundé selected as the three vice-captains.
Mbappé has been one of the players most pleased by the arrival of Zidane, who is known for managing egos effectively. Mbappé described the prospect of playing under Zidane as being “like a movie” and explained that Zidane has been a special figure for him since childhood. The star forward even recalled that it was Zidane who took him to Real Madrid’s training facilities when he was around 13 or 14 years old.
Considering how important ego management can be in a national team packed with stars like France, these developments are significant. Zidane has made an excellent start in that regard. When you have world-class players at your disposal, managing their personalities properly and keeping the balance within the squad can already solve a significant part of the challenge.
Ibrahima Konaté, Warren Zaïre-Emery, and Robin Risser will miss the match through injury. Mbappé’s availability remains uncertain because of flu-like symptoms, although he is still expected to be part of the squad.
Known for managing egos effectively and giving his players freedom on the pitch, Zidane will naturally want to win his first match in charge. Strict tactical limitations have never really been his style, so France are unlikely to score once and then simply switch into cruise-control mode.
With an attacking line full of quick, world-class players, France should have little difficulty finding goals against Türkiye’s slow center-backs.
Prediction
Away Team Over 1.5 Goals
North Macedonia vs Switzerland
Match Analysis
The Switzerland national team, who achieved a historic success by reaching the World Cup quarter-finals, have been going through a somewhat eventful period recently.
Silvan Widmer and Christian Fassnacht have retired from international football. However, the drama involving Granit Xhaka and Noah Okafor has been exactly the kind of story the media loves. Xhaka admitted to using a fake vaccination certificate during the COVID-19 pandemic and left the national team camp. He apologized and left the camp, meaning it was ultimately an individual mistake for which he accepted the consequences. Okafor’s situation, however, is very different. He announced that he would not play for Switzerland as long as Murat Yakin remains head coach. Among the issues reportedly behind Okafor’s decision are promises that he believes were not kept and his dissatisfaction with how the coaching staff reacted to the mistakes he made against Algeria at the World Cup.
Murat Yakin, who became a social media talking point during the World Cup with his charismatic presence on the bench while also leading Switzerland to a historic quarter-final appearance, responded to the Okafor situation exactly as you would expect: he did not back down at all. Yakin stated that he was particularly unhappy with Okafor’s defensive performance and also made it clear that he expects players to discuss their problems privately with him rather than through the media. Despite all of this, Yakin showed maturity by not completely closing the door on Okafor, saying that anyone who performs well can be selected again.
The successful coach’s stance was extremely important. Refusing to give in when a player effectively makes an absurd public statement along the lines of “if the coach stays, I’m out” is important for both team discipline and the atmosphere within the camp. In this situation, Okafor is likely to be the one who loses out, just as we have seen in similar situations throughout football history.
Yakin’s Switzerland, who are trying to use situations like these as opportunities to quickly integrate a new generation, were relegated from Nations League A to League B last season. Therefore, the Nations League can no longer be considered an unimportant competition for them. Yakin has clearly set the objective of winning the group and returning to League A. Considering that their group opponents are Scotland, Slovenia, and North Macedonia, Switzerland’s current squad quality should be more than enough to achieve that objective despite these minor internal issues.
North Macedonia, meanwhile, made a reasonable start to last season’s World Cup qualifiers but suffered heavy defeats against stronger opponents and ultimately failed to reach the tournament. They now face an extremely difficult test against Switzerland in their first-ever Nations League B campaign. Their 7–1 defeat to Wales and 4–0 loss to Denmark in World Cup qualifying were clear examples of just how helpless and vulnerable their defense can become against strong opposition.
Although new head coach Goce Sedloski’s main project is to build a new team capable of qualifying for EURO 2028, creating rapid change without a magic wand looks extremely difficult. The team’s form is genuinely poor. They have failed to win any of their last eight matches and scored only two goals during that entire run.
North Macedonia can essentially be described as a limited team built around Eljif Elmas and Enis Bardhi. When these two key players are neutralized by the opposition or simply out of form, the team’s attacking productivity almost completely disappears. Both Elmas and Bardhi have also struggled for regular playing time with their clubs, Atalanta and Konyaspor, this season and do not appear fully ready for the campaign.
Although earning promotion from League C to League B with five wins and one draw was a significant achievement for North Macedonia, they are unlikely to withstand Switzerland, the strongest team in the group and one that has only just been relegated from League A. North Macedonia’s eight-match winless run should extend to nine.
Prediction
Away Win
Slovakia vs Moldova
Match Analysis
Following their elimination by Kosovo in the World Cup playoffs, Francesco Calzona’s tenure came to an end and Vladimír Weiss returned to take charge of Slovakia after 14 years. Weiss previously managed the national team between 2008 and 2012 and led Slovakia to the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, the only World Cup appearance in the country’s history.
Peter Pekarík, who had been part of Slovakia’s defense for nearly 20 years, has retired from international football. However, we can still say that the defensive core remains strong. Slovakia’s main concern at the moment is that several of their attacking players are not getting enough playing time at club level. This disadvantage could actually turn into an advantage. Some players may see the national team as a serious opportunity to prove to their clubs that they deserve more playing time.
Slovakia possess superior squad quality compared with the other teams in the group, and head coach Weiss has made it clear that they have to succeed in this group. Naturally, Slovakia are aiming to finish top.
Moldova, meanwhile, performed very poorly in the World Cup qualifiers, recording seven defeats and one draw from eight matches. They scored only five goals while conceding 32. Their 11–1 defeat to Norway in particular demonstrated just how vulnerable their defense can be against stronger opposition.
Moldova already struggle to score goals, and the injury to experienced forward Virgiliu Postolachi has made the situation in attack even more difficult. Away to group favorites Slovakia, their task will be anything but easy.
With a very young and limited squad lacking international experience, Moldova are unlikely to withstand a Slovakia side with far superior squad quality and a clear objective of finishing top of the group.
Prediction
Home Win