In this weekend bulletin, we selected four matches from the Eredivisie, Bundesliga, Serie A, and Liga Portugal that caught our attention, and shared our predictions along with detailed analysis.
PSV Eindhoven vs SC Heerenveen
Match Analysis
PSV, who are aiming for their fourth consecutive Eredivisie title under Peter Bosz, did not make a particularly good start to the season but had shown signs of recovery with a series of consecutive victories. However, their 3–2 defeat to FC Twente Enschede in their most recent match was a blow to morale. That defeat also exposed the fact that their defensive problems are far from resolved.
They have conceded ten goals in seven league matches and have failed to keep a single clean sheet. Against Twente, they were leading 2–1 but could not protect their advantage and eventually lost. The prolonged absence of captain Jerdy Schouten and the new midfield structure are the main reasons behind this defensive crisis. In PSV’s traditional high-pressing system, attack and defense are closely connected. When the first line of pressing breaks down or unnecessary possession losses occur, the spaces left behind can give opponents clear goalscoring opportunities.
Although PSV are struggling defensively, the situation in attack is completely different. They have scored an impressive 24 goals in seven matches. Their 3–1 away victory over Ajax Amsterdam and 6–1 win away to FC Utrecht were particularly impressive.
With the demanding schedule also taking its toll, we can say that PSV are experiencing something of an injury crisis. Ricardo Pepi’s injury in the tenth minute against Twente left the team without a center forward. However, PSV have faced this problem before, and Bosz found a solution by moving midfielders further forward. They should be able to overcome this center-forward crisis in a similar way. After all, only three of their 24 league goals this season have come from Pepi, which shows that PSV are not particularly dependent on a traditional center forward. Guus Til and Sven Mijnans, who have both been highly effective with four goals each this season, should be capable of carrying the attacking burden and compensating for this absence.
In a crucial week when their title rivals Feyenoord Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar face each other, PSV will host Heerenveen.
Heerenveen have been going through an inconsistent and unpredictable season. Much like NEC Nijmegen, they have struggled to fully translate their squad quality into performances on the pitch. However, they gained an important confidence boost with an emphatic 4–0 away victory over Sparta Rotterdam in their most recent match.
What makes Heerenveen particularly interesting is that, despite their inconsistency, they can be very difficult opponents for the bigger clubs. They have already defeated Twente this season and managed to earn a point away to Ajax. In those matches, rather than adopting the mentality of a weaker team by sitting deep and surrendering complete control to their opponents, they played courageously, tried to compete on equal terms, and actively looked for goals.
Head coach Robin Veldman’s demand for courage and confidence from his players ahead of the PSV match is one of the clearest signs that they intend to play without fear and try to take something from this fixture as well. Considering PSV’s current defensive weaknesses, Heerenveen’s courage could cause them serious problems. However, that same courageous approach could also allow PSV’s attack, which has already scored 24 goals, to create chances with relative ease and repeatedly change the scoreline.
PSV will enter this match determined to win, both to put the Twente defeat behind them and to take advantage of Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar facing each other. Heerenveen, meanwhile, will try to exploit PSV’s serious defensive weaknesses with the courageous and confident style they have shown against bigger clubs. We appear to be heading for a lively, high-scoring encounter.
Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
FC Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
Match Analysis
Manuel Baum’s Augsburg have been one of the most notable surprises in the Bundesliga this season. Currently sitting fourth in the table, Augsburg’s most impressive achievement has been scoring 11 goals in just four matches. Their 4–1 away victory over Eintracht Frankfurt and 2–2 draw with Bayer 04 Leverkusen particularly demonstrated how much they have improved offensively this season.
Augsburg have developed a style built around intense running and pressing, disrupting their opponents’ play while showing no hesitation in attacking the opposition goal. Judging by Baum’s comments yesterday, Augsburg have no intention of abandoning their current approach against Bayern either. Baum stated that he wants to disrupt Bayern’s game through physical intensity and aggressive pressing.
Beyond their excellent form this season, Augsburg are also one of the few teams that occasionally cause Bayern serious problems. In fact, they defeated Bayern 2–1 away from home last season, becoming the only club to beat them in the Bundesliga throughout that campaign. That was a hugely significant achievement and one that could give Augsburg’s players considerable confidence heading into this season’s meeting.
Although things have been going very well offensively for Augsburg, they have started to struggle defensively, conceding five goals in their last two matches. We can say that their intense running and pressing have begun to seriously disrupt their defensive balance while they continue producing dangerous attacks. To make matters worse, the injury suffered by important defender Noahkai Banks while on duty with Germany’s U21 national team represents a major loss ahead of the Bayern match.
Bayern, meanwhile, continue their unbeaten run after sending a warning to their Bundesliga rivals with a crushing 7–0 victory over 1. FC Union Berlin in their most recent match. Harry Kane and Michael Olise have been the two standout players, both producing magnificent performances. Kane became the fastest player in Bundesliga history to reach 100 goals, while Olise has scored more goals from outside the penalty area than any other player since arriving in Germany.
Another positive development for Bayern is that none of their players returned injured from international duty, particularly welcome news after one of those long and demanding international breaks that can sometimes turn club treatment rooms into crowded hospitals.
However, there is something interesting about Bayern this season. While they have been dismantling opponents at home, they have looked much less comfortable away from home. They were held to a goalless draw by newly promoted FC Schalke 04 and only managed a narrow 2–1 victory against another newly promoted side, SV 07 Elversberg. As a result, only two of their 14 league goals have come in away matches. It will be genuinely interesting to see how they perform away to an Augsburg side that have been in excellent attacking form this season.
Bayern are, of course, the clear favorites. Nobody would be surprised if they won comfortably by a large margin. With a UEFA Champions League match against Viking FK, one of the competition’s weaker teams, coming up in midweek, Vincent Kompany also seems unlikely to make extensive changes against Augsburg. However, Augsburg can occasionally be a troublesome opponent for Bayern. With their aggressive pressing and willingness to attack, they are certainly not a team that should simply be underestimated. Of course, that same courageous and confident approach could turn into a serious disadvantage, presenting Bayern’s quick and dangerous attackers with numerous golden opportunities. In short, we appear to be heading for a fast-paced, high-scoring encounter in which the ball should find the net at least three times.
Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
US Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Match Analysis
Although their defeat to AC Monza disappointed the supporters, Sassuolo have made a promising start to the season under Alberto Aquilani. They were particularly impressive in their victory over Juventus FC.
Sassuolo have been performing above expectations offensively. They have scored nine goals across five league matches and managed to find the net in every single one. Captain Domenico Berardi’s contribution to the attack has been both significant and obvious. There is also an interesting statistic involving Berardi that is particularly relevant to this fixture: he loves scoring against Milan. He has scored 12 goals against them during his Serie A career. His performance in the upcoming match will therefore be worth watching closely, as he represents one of Sassuolo’s biggest threats to the Milan defense. There is also a strong possibility that Sebastiano Esposito will make an extra effort to prove himself in such a high-profile fixture.
Although Sassuolo have not struggled too much to score, their defensive situation is far from ideal. They have conceded nine goals in five matches. In other words, they are the kind of team that both scores and concedes regularly. Their squad structure, which has not yet fully settled, and the injury to important center-back Jay Idzes are the main reasons behind this problem. They look likely to face considerable difficulties against a Milan side with high-quality attacking players.
Milan, meanwhile, continue their unbeaten run under Ruben Amorim, who is at the center of a long-term project at the club. However, Amorim has still not found his ideal formation or starting eleven. He faced harsh criticism over this issue before the US Lecce match. Particularly after their shocking UEFA Europa League defeat to SL Benfica, supporters had even begun expressing their frustration directly toward the team at the stadium. Club owner Gerry Cardinale also held a private meeting with Amorim. Milan managed to overcome this mini-crisis by comfortably defeating Lecce 3–0.
Amorim’s job is not easy. Expectations at Milan are extremely high, and the supporters are desperate for success, with very little patience left for negative results. Although Amorim is leading a long-term project, he will continue to feel pressure while trying to establish his ideal starting eleven and formation. The Sassuolo match will be another test in that process.
There is considerable speculation in the Italian media that Amorim will experiment with yet another formation in this match. Therefore, we can say that the Sassuolo fixture carries some significant uncertainties for Milan. Against a Milan side potentially experimenting with a new formation and naturally likely to be vulnerable during that process, Sassuolo could produce a notable surprise. The injury to Alexis Saelemaekers is another factor making Milan’s situation more difficult.
Nevertheless, Milan still possess extremely talented and effective attackers such as Gonçalo Ramos and Christian Pulisic. They also have a masterful footballing brain in Luka Modrić, who can control the midfield. This combination gives them the ability to change the scoreline at any moment against a Sassuolo side with defensive weaknesses.
Although Milan will enter the match as favorites, this is a difficult away fixture surrounded by uncertainties, particularly the possibility of another formation change. When we also consider Sassuolo’s tendency to be dangerous offensively regardless of the opposition, choosing a match winner would be risky. Looking at the current situations of both teams, backing at least two goals in the match seems like a very logical choice.
Prediction
Over 1.5 Goals
SL Benfica vs Vitória Guimarães SC
Match Analysis
Benfica, who have been enjoying a very good season under Marco Silva, suffered a setback in the title race after losing 3–1 away to FC Porto. Before that match, they had scored 12 goals and conceded only once across four games. Their 2–0 away victory over Milan in the UEFA Europa League during that period had also attracted considerable attention. However, they were unable to avoid defeat in a fiercely contested match against Porto.
Of course, nothing has been decided in the title race yet. We are talking about a Benfica side that have scored 22 goals in seven league matches. They possess an extremely powerful attacking line capable of producing an immediate response and putting the painful Porto defeat behind them. Vangelis Pavlidis and Gianluca Prestianni in particular have been in magnificent form. Pavlidis has recorded eight goals and two assists, while Prestianni has contributed five goals and three assists, with both continuing to make a major impact this season.
Their upcoming UEFA Europa League home match against Celtic FC also makes extensive rotation relatively unlikely. After all, the league is far more important right now. They cannot afford another dropped point following the Porto defeat. If they want to remain firmly in the title race, they must respond in this match.
The absences of Clément Lenglet and Enzo Barrenechea are frustrating for Benfica defensively. However, this week they host Vitória SC, one of the teams least equipped to take advantage of those weaknesses.
Vitória SC are having a poor season under Tiago Margarido. They have lost four of their seven league matches, collected just five points, and dropped to 14th place in the table. They have scored only five goals in those seven matches and failed to score in three of them. One of those goalless performances even came at home against Casa Pia AC, who had made an extremely poor start to the season. Thanks to Vitória SC’s unproductive attack, Casa Pia managed to collect their first point of the campaign.
Vitória SC’s away performances have also been poor. They have lost all three of their away matches. Facing a Benfica side averaging 3.14 goals per game will be an extremely difficult task. They will need to convert the chances they create while also defending exceptionally well.
As if their goalscoring problems were not enough, center forward Alioune Ndoye is suspended, while Gustavo Silva’s availability remains uncertain.
Although Vitória SC president Rui Rodrigues has stated that the club continues to trust Margarido and the players, he has openly expressed his disappointment with the poor results. There is considerable dissatisfaction among supporters, and the pressure on Margarido and his players has increased significantly. A very difficult and serious test awaits them away to Benfica.
With Sporting CP facing a difficult trip to SC Braga and Porto traveling to CS Marítimo this week, the possibility of their title rivals dropping points could make Benfica even more determined and hungry against Vitória SC. Of course, regardless of whether their rivals drop points, Benfica will want to respond to the Porto defeat. Having caught Vitória SC in such a difficult situation, they should once again defeat a team they have consistently beaten at home since February 5, 2021.
Prediction
Home Win