In this international break bulletin, we selected three matches from the UEFA Nations League that caught our attention, and shared our predictions along with detailed analysis.
Netherlands vs Serbia
Match Analysis
The Netherlands continue to improve with each passing match since entering a new era under Xavi Hernández. Despite falling 2–0 behind in a very difficult away match against Greece, they completely dominated the second half, scored twice, and managed to come away with a point.
Although Christos Tzolis’ injury disrupted some of Greece’s plans, the Netherlands allowed their opponents just one shot in the second half while attempting 14 themselves, four of which were on target, effectively turning the game into one-way traffic. It is also worth remembering that Greece are capable of forming an extremely strong defensive block that makes life very difficult for opposing attackers once they surrender control of the game. From that perspective, the Netherlands’ second-half performance and the two goals they scored were a significant achievement.
We know that Xavi wants to build a Netherlands side that dominates possession, uses the full width of the pitch, presses high, and moves the ball quickly. Although they have not yet reached the desired level, we saw this style beginning to take shape against Greece. Once their quick ball circulation across the pitch and high pressing are fully established, the Netherlands look capable of becoming a very dangerous team for their opponents and a very entertaining one for us to watch.
However, we also saw, particularly with the first goal they conceded, that playing with a high defensive line came at a cost against a Greece side that looks for goals through ambitious pressing and quick transitions. This high defensive line could occasionally create problems for the Netherlands against teams that are effective in fast transitions.
The Netherlands have not yet reached the level Xavi ultimately wants, but they continue to create plenty of goalscoring opportunities and dominate matches, particularly in the second half. Against teams with limited attacking quality, they should have the opportunity to take complete control and create chance after chance. Serbia, their opponents today, are exactly that kind of team.
Things are not going well for Serbia, who have lost six of the seven matches they have played since the World Cup qualifiers. Defeats at home to Greece and the Netherlands, followed by an away defeat to Germany, have also given them a poor start to the Nations League.
They have conceded six goals and scored only two in their three Nations League matches. They are struggling both defensively and offensively. Nikola Milenković’s absence has seriously weakened the defense, while the absences of Aleksandar Mitrović and Dušan Vlahović have had a major negative impact on the attack.
Serbia were particularly poor against Germany, a match in which they completely surrendered control of the game. Germany effectively turned it into one-way traffic, attempting 32 shots, eight of them on target, while Serbia managed just a single shot. The only thing that prevented Germany from extending the margin was Đorđe Petrović, who produced an excellent performance despite conceding twice. Otherwise, we could easily have been talking about a completely different scoreline.
Although the battle is mathematically still alive, mentally they are well aware that remaining in League A has become almost impossible. However, they also know very well that their supporters want to see an attacking reaction and some signs of improvement. Head coach Veljko Paunović has also openly admitted that they have not been good enough offensively. They will therefore try to show a reaction in this match, and the spaces they leave behind could repeatedly put the Netherlands in dangerous goalscoring positions.
There is also a very recent and important development for Serbia. Petrović, who prevented the scoreline from getting out of hand against Germany, will not be in goal against the Netherlands. He was given permission to leave the national team camp because his wife is due to give birth.
Xavi wants to secure his first victory in front of the home supporters. Therefore, the Netherlands will look to start aggressively and finish their opponents off early. Oranje should score at least twice against a Serbia side that have struggled badly to make an impact on the pitch this season and are missing several important players.
Prediction
Home Team Over 1.5 Goals
Italy vs Türkiye
Match Analysis
After infuriating their supporters by failing to qualify for three consecutive World Cups, Italy entered a new era under Roberto Mancini. Mancini’s new-look Italy are going through a major rebuilding process, and although they made a terrible start by losing to Belgium in Rome, they responded by comfortably defeating Türkiye 4–1 away from home before earning a point in a difficult away match against France.
However, that does not mean everything has suddenly been fixed for Italy. In fact, we could say that they were somewhat “lucky” in their last two matches.
In the 4–1 victory over Türkiye, Italy were practically gifted their goals through some absurd mistakes by the Turkish defenders. There were two main reasons why they managed to take a point away from France. First, Zinédine Zidane approached the match with a philosophy of “keep the egos happy, give them freedom, and let individual quality win the game” rather than a specifically prepared tactical plan for the opponent. Second, captain Gianluigi Donnarumma produced several crucial saves. Nevertheless, earning a point away to France remains an important achievement for Italy and should provide a significant morale boost. They also refused to give up after falling behind, which is a positive sign of the team’s mental development.
“Luck” continues to smile on Italy. At a critical time when their connection with the supporters had been close to breaking down completely, they now host a Türkiye side going through one of the worst periods in their history in Bologna.
After a disappointing World Cup campaign that ended in an early elimination, Türkiye have also made a terrible start to the Nations League. The Red and Whites have lost all three matches, conceding eight goals while scoring only once. They are in a serious crisis at both ends of the pitch.
Türkiye’s defensive line have made the kind of absurd mistakes that leave you wondering whether they are accustomed to playing football at this level. When you make obvious mistakes in League A, the consequences are immediate and often impossible to recover from. Even Vincenzo Montella, who has faced resignation calls from Turkish supporters in almost every match this season, has recently begun to acknowledge this problem.
And even when they avoid obvious mistakes, Türkiye’s defense still has several chronic problems. For one thing, they are extremely slow. They are often helpless against quick players, and once they concede, they tend to become demoralized very quickly and allow the scoreline to grow. For example, they did not make too many ridiculous mistakes away to Belgium, yet Belgium still won 3–0 and also hit the woodwork twice.
Türkiye do not have a center forward either. The fact that they have attempted 50 shots across three matches and scored only once shows just how serious the problem is. Arda Güler has worked extremely hard individually, but without a finisher to supply, his efforts have repeatedly gone to waste. Their only natural center forward is Deniz Gül, and he is nowhere near ready because he has not been getting enough playing time at club level.
Is that all? Of course not. Arda Güler and Barış Alper Yılmaz both received yellow cards against Belgium and are now suspended. Türkiye’s two most important attacking players will therefore miss the match against Italy. Orkun Kökçü and Can Uzun have also suffered injuries. We can essentially say that Türkiye have no attacking central midfielders available. It looks extremely difficult for them to make any kind of impact against Italy.
Italy will be full of confidence after their draw away to France, and having caught Türkiye at their weakest point, they are unlikely to waste this opportunity against a team they have not beaten at home since December 21, 1994. This match is also extremely important for Italy as they continue trying to repair their relationship with the supporters. On top of that, they need to win if they want to take advantage of any potential points dropped by Belgium away to France.
Prediction
Home Win
England vs Czechia
Match Analysis
England appear to have made their supporters forget the painful defeat to Spain after recording a historic 7–0 victory over Croatia in Rijeka. Croatia are still a team with several important players in their squad. We are not talking about San Marino here, so this was a very significant victory. England produced an excellent team performance with contributions to the scoreline coming from several different players.
Jude Bellingham delivered an outstanding performance with one goal and three assists. Harry Kane, of course, did not leave empty-handed either, scoring twice. Bukayo Saka also scored two goals, emphatically reminding Thomas Tuchel that he should be the first-choice winger in this team. Anthony Gordon found the net again. Barcelona appears to have done Gordon plenty of good, with the winger now recording four goals and two assists in his last five matches for England. Morgan Rogers came off the bench and scored as well, suggesting that he could become a valuable rotation option for the national team.
The fact that five different players contributed to the scoreline was particularly important. England’s mechanical, overly controlled, and excessively Kane-centered attacking structure had occasionally caused problems in the past. In this match, however, contributions from several players and the team’s more dynamic movement produced a completely different performance as they tore their opponents apart. We can say that Tuchel has started listening to the criticism and making positive changes for the team.
England have also kept clean sheets in their last two matches. Before the Croatia game, they defeated Czechia 2–0 away from home. They will now face Czechia again in their fourth group match, this time at Wembley.
Czechia have declined significantly since losing their golden generation. Although Santi Denia is trying to build a new structure, the negative trend continues. Competing in League A was already going to be difficult for them, and they are also missing seven players through injury: Tomáš Chorý, David Jurásek, Lukáš Provod, Denis Višinský, Tomáš Vlček, David Zima, and Tomáš Souček. All of these absences have severely limited Denia’s options.
They have lost all three of their matches. Of course, they will still compete with Croatia for third place, but their task is extremely difficult and they currently look like the weakest team in the group. They have struggled to make an impact offensively. Adam Hložek is trying to create something through individual effort, but it has not been enough. For example, Spain rotated heavily in the most recent match and, after taking a 2–0 lead, shifted into cruise-control mode in the second half. That created a genuine opportunity for Czechia, as taking their foot off the gas did not suit Spain. Czechia even managed to score, but captain Ladislav Krejčí then received a second yellow card and was sent off. They conceded once more and lost 3–1, wasting the kind of opportunity that may only come around once in a blue moon.
England are likely to rotate. However, they also want to give their supporters their first home victory of the season at Wembley. Czechia already have numerous absences, and as if those were not enough, they will also be without center-back Krejčí following his red card against Spain. They are unlikely to withstand England’s attacking line. The Three Lions should find the Czechia net at least twice.
Prediction
Home Team Over 1.5 Goals